This has only a glancing relation to marketing, but since I'm such a big fan of the book Influence and the psychology behind consumer actions I wanted to share a recent series of articles from John Tierney of the New York Times. Tierney examined what's known as the Monty Hall problem.
“Here’s how Monty’s deal works, in the math problem, anyway. (On the real show it was a bit messier.) He shows you three closed doors, with a car behind one and a goat behind each of the others. If you open the one with the car, you win it. You start by picking a door, but before it’s opened Monty will always open another door to reveal a goat. Then he’ll let you open either remaining door.
“Suppose you start by picking Door 1, and Monty opens Door 3 to reveal a goat. Now what should you do? Stick with Door 1 or switch to Door 2?”
With two doors remaining, most people assume that there's now a 50/50 chance that their door is correct. It should make no difference if they switch. But they're wrong. The answer to this probability mind bender is that you should always switch. Staying on your selected door will net you the car 1 out of 3 times, while switching leads to success 2 out of 3 times.
Don't believe me? Try the New York Times interactive Monty Hall Game and see for yourself.
Tierney offers explanations to this and others in a series that culminates with his piece on The Psychology of Getting Suckered.
Take 15 minutes to go through his series of articles and another five to battle Monty. If you make it through you'll have a better understanding of these problems along with a couple bar tricks.
Part I: "The Monty Hall Problem"
"Interactive Monty Hall Game”
Part II: "Monty Hall's Other Problems"
Part III: "The Psychology of Getting Suckered”
(From: New York Times via Consumerist)
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